testing hello testing
Updated at 2025-05-31 20:54:04.661073

Conversion successful!
Created: C:/Users/Chris/Python/format_csv.py
Before update data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-05-30
  Number of rows: 5002

CSV is already up to date.
After update (unchanged) data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-05-30
  Number of rows: 5002

Moved original file to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\Old\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv_20250531_083855
Copied updated file back to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv
Before update data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-05-30
  Number of rows: 5002

CSV is already up to date.
After update (unchanged) data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-05-30
  Number of rows: 5002

Moved original file to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\Old\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv_20250531_083855
Copied updated file back to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv

✅ Complete Bitcoin analysis completed successfully!

Output folder: C:\Users\Chris\Downloads\btc_report\btc_report_2025-05-24.4
Success with webpdf! PDF saved to: C:\Users\Chris\Downloads\btc_report\btc_report_2025-05-24.4\btc_report_2025-05-24.pdf

1-Month Period Performance:

	Rank	Period	Mean Return	Median Return	Success Rate	Min Return	Max Return	Count	Is Current	4 Mean	4 Median	4 Success	4 Count	1 Mean	1 Median	1 Success	1 Count	2 Mean	2 Median	2 Success	2 Count	3 Mean	3 Median	3 Success	3 Count
9	1	October	16.708239	14.596452	72.941176	-31.958763	61.219802	425	False	10.933955	12.745795	75.000000	124	49.975623	48.730378	100.000000	93	-4.048506	-4.463919	33.333333	93	12.817125	28.540701	80.9%	115
1	2	February	11.478221	11.632250	71.212121	-31.494396	65.172414	396	False	10.850846	4.711207	50.000000	116	26.929632	30.103910	75.000000	112	-5.886182	1.634744	66.666667	84	9.107117	11.063395	100.0%	84
10	3	November	40.821275	11.544720	65.060241	-37.012293	450.162130	415	False	24.898990	25.188214	100.000000	120	165.874914	54.605206	66.666667	90	-13.894289	-16.215293	33.333333	90	2.388643	8.803762	52.2%	115
6	4	July	10.186790	9.920591	69.230769	-9.056250	40.606061	403	False	15.403052	13.692184	75.000000	124	14.697911	15.831806	100.000000	93	9.588578	16.842772	66.666667	93	-0.681137	-4.063146	33.3%	93
0	5	January	5.724824	9.699454	57.540603	-32.429907	54.531722	431	False	8.053369	8.215224	75.000000	124	19.570423	11.996578	75.000000	124	-11.306391	-16.738222	33.333333	93	1.039370	-7.600200	34.4%	90
3	6	April	11.254897	5.397477	64.285714	-17.316107	46.471204	420	False	7.405229	5.189520	75.000000	120	21.220719	20.068815	75.000000	120	4.935164	-1.310437	33.333333	90	9.419757	2.665402	66.7%	90
4	7	May	9.874538	4.655870	57.043880	-35.385043	70.364302	433	True	11.011360	10.394559	100.000000	124	9.203308	-8.550797	49.593496	123	1.754902	-15.611611	33.333333	93	17.366169	-3.197023	33.3%	93
5	8	June	1.290665	2.120102	53.846154	-37.297881	27.852998	390	False	10.713984	11.083742	50.000000	120	-9.550328	-6.015737	33.333333	90	-16.649083	-14.769469	33.333333	90	17.506980	14.673889	100.0%	90
2	9	March	12.267052	-1.956171	42.857143	-32.829600	186.758127	434	False	-3.746775	-3.430710	25.000000	124	51.094224	13.882171	50.000000	124	-15.030623	-17.573396	33.333333	93	9.146932	8.046911	66.7%	93
8	10	September	-4.032625	-3.112375	36.319613	-39.750000	19.803922	413	False	6.542976	6.959184	75.000000	120	-5.626852	-6.968862	0.000000	90	-9.141489	-5.957570	0.000000	90	-9.924608	2.584148	53.1%	113
11	11	December	6.642505	-3.203035	49.651972	-34.614835	47.145156	431	False	20.255268	18.539476	75.000000	124	-4.586390	-18.960943	33.333333	93	-8.449211	-6.982894	0.000000	93	12.922127	11.998092	74.4%	121
7	12	August	1.666698	-8.313253	37.712895	-26.605505	65.776435	411	False	-1.238046	-2.849088	50.000000	124	36.784920	30.919505	100.000000	93	-13.651142	-13.863217	0.000000	93	-12.999117	-11.255604	0.0%	101

2-Month Period Performance:

	Rank	Period	Mean Return	Median Return	Success Rate	Min Return	Max Return	Count	Is Current	4 Mean	4 Median	4 Success	4 Count	1 Mean	1 Median	1 Success	1 Count	2 Mean	2 Median	2 Success	2 Count	3 Mean	3 Median	3 Success	3 Count
10	1	November-December	40.265119	27.457241	64.285714	-41.418035	259.634470	14	False	50.527870	35.823319	100.000000	4	116.892114	115.720893	66.666667	3	-21.930960	-19.348070	0.000000	3	19.179182	29.924356	75.0%	4
9	2	October-November	79.098668	25.987918	64.285714	-39.812270	786.970297	14	False	39.704846	37.142032	100.000000	4	315.629640	129.945979	100.000000	3	-18.205098	-11.581441	0.000000	3	14.072085	15.402144	50.0%	4
8	3	September-October	11.465651	18.804455	71.428571	-58.750000	59.139953	14	False	16.893454	18.804455	100.000000	4	41.757452	35.907407	100.000000	3	-12.452064	-10.155820	33.333333	3	1.257285	14.532349	50.0%	4
3	4	April-May	23.414375	17.085351	64.285714	-36.483355	114.498665	14	False	18.891402	16.992634	75.000000	4	34.488711	29.969768	75.000000	4	5.325905	8.168339	66.666667	3	32.767696	-4.414244	33.3%	3
1	5	February-March	34.180277	12.272828	64.285714	-43.358655	373.645320	14	False	9.357892	0.568554	50.000000	4	110.701806	44.282342	75.000000	4	-18.937472	-31.730941	33.333333	3	18.365834	19.989806	100.0%	3
5	6	June-July	11.072967	11.293596	69.230769	-26.605765	79.497099	13	False	28.156414	18.712754	75.000000	4	4.164085	11.293596	66.666667	3	-10.260947	-7.288946	33.333333	3	16.537835	18.015165	100.0%	3
11	7	December-January	12.599230	9.475761	64.285714	-42.327634	68.200216	14	False	42.349750	47.520229	100.000000	4	-19.514037	-28.272831	33.333333	3	-7.213865	-14.039581	33.333333	3	21.793482	18.087095	75.0%	4
4	8	May-June	14.126297	5.831475	69.230769	-47.062870	104.259415	13	True	22.999282	19.818572	100.000000	4	2.472603	-35.990563	33.333333	3	-11.731168	-30.916827	33.333333	3	39.806811	11.007739	100.0%	3
0	9	January-February	18.647726	5.795879	64.285714	-25.685159	153.247734	14	False	18.445645	14.021501	100.000000	4	55.713504	39.637789	75.000000	4	-19.044846	-24.849727	0.000000	3	7.188704	2.639793	66.7%	3
2	10	March-April	27.827850	1.930398	64.285714	-18.657122	317.178646	14	False	0.799067	0.700318	75.000000	4	92.469689	20.500037	100.000000	4	-13.990771	-12.914598	0.000000	3	19.495729	26.306921	66.7%	3
6	11	July-August	13.690420	0.492921	53.846154	-25.150000	92.021838	13	False	15.309307	10.821040	50.000000	4	56.561594	43.160720	100.000000	3	-4.922102	0.492921	66.666667	3	-12.726749	-12.460964	0.0%	3
7	12	August-September	0.137788	-5.104429	30.769231	-32.979744	51.483817	13	False	5.564187	-2.159928	25.000000	4	28.755379	29.129590	100.000000	3	-21.392457	-16.585722	0.000000	3	-14.184757	-17.032562	0.0%	3

3-Month Period Performance:

	Rank	Period	Mean Return	Median Return	Success Rate	Min Return	Max Return	Count	Is Current	4 Mean	4 Median	4 Success	4 Count	1 Mean	1 Median	1 Success	1 Count	2 Mean	2 Median	2 Success	2 Count	3 Mean	3 Median	3 Success	3 Count
10	1	November-January	47.090922	30.529970	78.571429	-45.862321	294.517048	14	False	77.586054	65.940942	100.000000	4	104.995364	57.734247	66.666667	3	-22.945218	-35.826504	33.333333	3	25.694562	20.642961	100.0%	4
9	2	October-December	73.814022	27.942412	64.285714	-44.022165	479.801980	14	False	70.921189	53.159969	100.000000	4	235.357620	220.843995	100.000000	3	-25.502996	-17.599343	0.000000	3	30.036921	25.573624	50.0%	4
8	3	September-November	74.256586	25.938819	64.285714	-60.125000	775.527756	14	False	46.101446	46.782846	100.000000	4	302.188854	110.120906	100.000000	3	-26.350635	-21.293919	0.000000	3	6.917942	12.093824	50.0%	4
4	4	May-July	23.517576	20.239354	61.538462	-38.035903	111.717128	13	True	41.292484	35.357287	100.000000	4	17.925403	-28.206167	33.333333	3	-8.276271	-16.423199	33.333333	3	37.203717	20.239354	66.7%	3
1	5	February-April	55.455776	15.003202	57.142857	-44.103362	589.064039	14	False	11.743267	7.027285	50.000000	4	173.897114	57.278985	75.000000	4	-18.410320	-8.935076	0.000000	3	29.683431	26.372439	100.0%	3
11	6	December-February	29.231020	14.167686	64.285714	-50.862870	170.621469	14	False	87.040715	95.067925	75.000000	4	-23.747340	-24.283641	33.333333	3	-0.779689	-4.513217	33.333333	3	33.663126	29.878608	100.0%	4
2	7	March-May	37.144868	12.289427	71.428571	-27.365126	281.479272	14	False	11.627996	10.566295	100.000000	4	95.061622	58.132920	75.000000	4	-13.368014	-26.512024	33.333333	3	44.457907	17.596993	66.7%	3
7	8	August-October	22.149216	11.969478	69.230769	-42.079378	125.302454	13	False	15.210635	15.251980	100.000000	4	93.792542	108.182469	100.000000	3	-24.160420	-18.423808	0.000000	3	6.066968	8.953599	66.7%	3
3	9	April-June	28.015231	7.612840	61.538462	-56.230706	162.953260	13	False	31.557926	38.619183	75.000000	4	27.825806	-6.251309	33.333333	3	-7.692032	-7.807551	33.333333	3	59.188325	7.612840	100.0%	3
0	10	January-March	54.244875	2.722598	50.000000	-50.081988	626.208459	14	False	15.395578	1.610138	50.000000	4	182.022344	56.730146	75.000000	4	-29.829482	-37.864754	0.000000	3	19.748337	10.889181	66.7%	3
6	11	July-September	11.878692	0.998787	53.846154	-38.892188	85.151515	13	False	23.848668	9.481279	75.000000	4	47.232605	41.203445	100.000000	3	-12.751564	-2.683335	33.333333	3	-14.804935	-11.496931	0.0%	3
5	12	June-August	14.477615	0.415010	61.538462	-36.875847	106.015640	13	False	28.618266	15.306495	75.000000	4	44.231841	26.492031	100.000000	3	-22.303405	-23.695444	0.000000	3	2.650208	0.415010	66.7%	3

6-Month Period Performance:

	Rank	Period	Mean Return	Median Return	Success Rate	Min Return	Max Return	Count	Is Current	4 Mean	4 Median	4 Success	4 Count	1 Mean	1 Median	1 Success	1 Count	2 Mean	2 Median	2 Success	2 Count	3 Mean	3 Median	3 Success	3 Count
8	1	September-February	86.188878	66.010952	64.285714	-47.084612	330.101642	14	False	167.120993	168.717541	100.000000	4	146.539822	117.877768	66.666667	3	-25.882291	-45.959537	33.333333	3	44.046931	38.957892	50.0%	4
9	2	October-March	125.229225	53.399416	78.571429	-37.917394	687.469287	14	False	309.754869	260.611115	100.000000	4	108.085649	60.158943	100.000000	3	-9.527043	-37.303625	33.333333	3	54.628464	38.415578	75.0%	4
7	3	August-January	103.324481	45.641833	61.538462	-62.830312	721.315332	13	False	106.406105	89.488601	100.000000	4	323.157322	255.380785	66.666667	3	-39.782312	-55.827925	0.000000	3	22.489603	29.435526	66.7%	3
11	4	December-May	103.978096	45.302966	71.428571	-44.302516	932.364810	14	False	309.840976	149.598078	100.000000	4	-37.584453	-43.922395	0.000000	3	44.897845	58.563439	66.666667	3	48.597315	45.302966	100.0%	4
6	5	July-December	121.971660	45.018234	69.230769	-49.843750	718.700369	13	False	102.982519	74.798052	100.000000	4	404.496695	462.973539	100.000000	3	-36.401360	-42.163411	0.000000	3	23.138499	38.691785	66.7%	3
0	6	January-June	81.650245	44.323144	69.230769	-56.900519	576.208459	13	False	43.800000	46.320311	100.000000	4	250.721648	155.136908	100.000000	3	-41.103543	-53.993444	0.000000	3	85.799622	84.325469	66.7%	3
10	7	November-April	135.980408	43.928610	71.428571	-38.654002	1171.636364	14	False	404.544530	206.192305	100.000000	4	41.836064	43.640430	66.666667	3	-1.294194	-16.424776	33.333333	3	40.980495	47.409600	75.0%	4
5	8	June-November	111.694283	42.848044	69.230769	-46.997977	776.487163	13	False	82.812047	75.717317	100.000000	4	387.399039	332.881928	100.000000	3	-44.304241	-45.967311	0.000000	3	30.497699	38.570904	66.7%	3
4	9	May-October	54.157954	31.170973	76.923077	-45.540211	377.003885	13	True	63.518998	57.766111	100.000000	4	142.900028	45.520841	100.000000	3	-34.024246	-31.808696	0.000000	3	41.116688	31.170973	100.0%	3
1	10	February-July	75.204859	30.402678	76.923077	-39.396121	384.137931	13	False	52.641101	59.834331	100.000000	4	201.898537	196.248924	100.000000	3	-30.264249	-27.516812	0.000000	3	84.065300	30.402678	100.0%	3
2	11	March-August	62.142971	12.036637	61.538462	-53.590453	297.449545	13	False	41.854168	33.698355	75.000000	4	194.460990	281.747689	100.000000	3	-32.915262	-31.969396	0.000000	3	51.934924	12.036637	66.7%	3
3	12	April-September	44.755799	-3.168942	46.153846	-57.328822	303.801781	13	False	63.255941	57.169211	75.000000	4	103.520605	32.198953	66.666667	3	-25.361489	-14.010246	0.000000	3	31.441426	-3.168942	33.3%	3

Analysis includes data from 14 years: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

Historical Year-End Returns (Full Year):
2013 (Cycle Year 1): +5437.07%
2017 (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13%
2020 (Cycle Year 4): +303.87%
2012 (Cycle Year 4): +164.80%
2023 (Cycle Year 3): +154.34%
2016 (Cycle Year 4): +122.74%
2024 (Cycle Year 4): +111.33%
2019 (Cycle Year 3): +87.48%
2021 (Cycle Year 1): +57.18%
2015 (Cycle Year 3): +37.31%
2014 (Cycle Year 2): -57.44%
2011 (Cycle Year 3): -57.98%
2022 (Cycle Year 2): -65.41%
2018 (Cycle Year 2): -72.53%

Average Year-End Return: +536.71%
Median Year-End Return: +111.33%

Returns by Cycle Year:
Cycle Year 1 (years: 2013, 2017, 2021):
  Average: +2261.79%
  Sample size: 3 years
Cycle Year 2 (years: 2014, 2022, 2018):
  Average: -65.12%
  Sample size: 3 years
Cycle Year 3 (years: 2023, 2019, 2015, 2011):
  Average: +55.29%
  Sample size: 4 years
Cycle Year 4 (years: 2020, 2012, 2016, 2024):
  Average: +175.69%
  Sample size: 4 years

Analysis includes 3 years matching cycle year(s) Year 1: 2013, 2017, 2021

Historical Year-End Returns (Full Year):
2013 (Cycle Year 1): +5437.07%
2017 (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13%
2021 (Cycle Year 1): +57.18%

Average Year-End Return (Cycle Year 1): +2261.79%
Median Year-End Return (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13%

Returns by Cycle Year:
Cycle Year 1 (years: 2013, 2017, 2021):
  Average: +2261.79%
  Sample size: 3 years

Calculating best fit line from start to end of data...

============================================================
BEST FIT LINE FROM START TO END SUMMARY:
============================================================
Total Data Period: 5001 days
R-squared: 0.886270
Scale Type: Log Scale
Daily Growth Rate: 0.1834%
Annual Growth Rate: 95.15%

Historical Performance:
Start Price: $10.90
End Price: $105641.76
Total Change: $105630.86 (969090.44%)

1000-Day Projection:
Projected Price: $1507527.44
Projected Change: $1401885.68 (1327.02%)

Valuation Oscillator Summary:
Current Deviation: -56.24%
Max Overvaluation: 1061.48%
Max Undervaluation: -92.21%
🟢 Currently UNDERVALUED relative to long-term trend

Finding top 3 best fitting linear regression channels for BTC (log scale)...

Top 3 Best Fitting Linear Regression Channels (Log Scale):
================================================================================

1. Window Size: 1000 days
   R-squared: 0.933998
   Daily Growth Rate: 0.1937%
   Annual Growth Rate: 102.65%
   Price Change: $85801.76 (432.47%)
   Start Price: $19840.00
   End Price: $105641.76

2. Window Size: 60 days
   R-squared: 0.919839
   Daily Growth Rate: 0.5965%
   Annual Growth Rate: 776.64%
   Price Change: $23103.76 (27.99%)
   Start Price: $82538.00
   End Price: $105641.76

3. Window Size: 750 days
   R-squared: 0.885403
   Daily Growth Rate: 0.1983%
   Annual Growth Rate: 106.11%
   Price Change: $78650.76 (291.40%)
   Start Price: $26991.00
   End Price: $105641.76

Plotting the top 3 regression channels with adaptive projections...
(Windows ≤100 days: +30d projection, Windows >100 days: +180d projection)

Results stored in 'top_channels' variable

============================================================
SUMMARY - TOP 3 BEST FITTING CHANNELS:
============================================================

#1. 1000 days | R² = 0.933998
     Annual Growth: 102.65%
     Price Range: $19840 → $105642 (432.5%)

     PRICE PROJECTIONS:
     +30 days: $120,897 ($90,279 - $161,898)
     +60 days: $128,123 ($95,670 - $171,585)
     +90 days: $135,781 ($101,382 - $181,851)

#2. 60 days | R² = 0.919839
     Annual Growth: 776.64%
     Price Range: $82538 → $105642 (28.0%)

     PRICE PROJECTIONS:
     +30 days: $134,116 ($125,419 - $143,417)
     +60 days: $160,315 ($148,941 - $172,558)
     +90 days: $191,631 ($176,563 - $207,985)

#3. 750 days | R² = 0.885403
     Annual Growth: 106.11%
     Price Range: $26991 → $105642 (291.4%)

     PRICE PROJECTIONS:
     +30 days: $122,628 ($90,491 - $166,177)
     +60 days: $130,138 ($96,023 - $176,374)
     +90 days: $138,109 ($101,892 - $187,198)

========================================================================================================================
                           MONTE CARLO SIMULATION SUMMARY TABLE
========================================================================================================================
Method                    Median   Risk/  99% >    95% >    75% >    Median   75% <    95% <    99% <   
Name                      Change   Reward Above    Above    Above    Price    Below    Below    Below   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard GBM (Normal)      +23.0%   3.8:1  $48,356 $65,189 $97,276 $127,889 $169,129 $252,582 $335,076
Fat Tails (Student-t)       +8.9%   2.2:1  $-8,847 $43,460 $83,030 $113,293 $152,701 $237,021 $332,247
Skewed Normal              +27.1%   4.3:1  $57,445 $73,218 $103,368 $132,131 $167,562 $235,625 $297,524
Historical Bootstrap       +24.2%   3.6:1  $46,827 $64,159 $98,426 $129,122 $167,425 $248,142 $325,948
Mixed (Bootstrap + Extremes)  +21.2%   2.9:1  $18,324 $51,407 $92,689 $126,001 $166,848 $258,548 $367,375
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE ACROSS METHODS     +20.9%   3.4:1  $32,421 $59,487 $94,958 $125,687 $164,733 $246,384 $331,634
MEDIAN ACROSS METHODS      +23.0%   3.6:1  $46,827 $64,159 $97,276 $127,889 $167,425 $248,142 $332,247
========================================================================================================================

🎯 CONSENSUS FORECAST (Average of All Methods):
• Expected Return (90 days): +20.9%
• Target Price: $125,687
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.4:1
• 95% Confidence Range: $59,487 to $246,384
• Extreme Downside (5% chance): Below $59,487 (-42.8%)
• Extreme Upside (5% chance): Above $246,384 (+136.9%)
• 📈 Probability of Profit: 67.8% chance of making money
• 📉 Probability of Loss: 32.2% chance of losing money

🎯 MARKET SIMILARITY ANALYSIS - NON-OVERLAPPING VERSION
============================================================
📊 Calculating market features...

🎯 CURRENT FEATURES ANALYSIS:
   Days since ATH: 7
   % from ATH: -5.65%
   RSI-14: 54.6

🔍 Finding similar periods...
✅ Found 6 diverse periods
📊 Analyzing top 3 most similar periods

🏆 TOP 3 SIMILAR PERIODS (NON-OVERLAPPING CHARTS)
================================================================================

#1 MATCH (Score: 0.997) - 28 features
📅 Period: 2024-09-05 00:00:00 to 2024-11-04 00:00:00
🔍 Current Signal Date: 2025-05-29 00:00:00 (Today's analysis date)
🔍 Key Comparisons:
   Days since ATH : Now    7.0 | Then  235.0 | Diff -228.0
   % from ATH     : Now   -5.7 | Then   -8.1 | Diff   +2.4
   30d return     : Now   10.7 | Then    5.9 | Diff   +4.8
   RSI-14         : Now   54.6 | Then   51.3 | Diff   +3.3
📈 What happened next:
   5d :  +13.1%
   10d:  +28.8%
   20d:  +44.5%
   30d:  +45.6%
   60d:  +44.7%
   90d:  +44.0%

   └─ Non-overlapping chart created for Match #1

────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

#2 MATCH (Score: 0.997) - 28 features
📅 Period: 2021-07-18 00:00:00 to 2021-09-16 00:00:00
🔍 Current Signal Date: 2025-05-29 00:00:00 (Today's analysis date)
🔍 Key Comparisons:
   Days since ATH : Now    7.0 | Then  155.0 | Diff -148.0
   % from ATH     : Now   -5.7 | Then  -26.4 | Diff  +20.8
   30d return     : Now   10.7 | Then   20.9 | Diff  -10.2
   RSI-14         : Now   54.6 | Then   52.4 | Diff   +2.2
📈 What happened next:
   5d :  -15.0%
   10d:   -9.5%
   20d:  +15.9%
   30d:  +27.4%
   60d:  +33.2%
   90d:   +2.3%

   └─ Non-overlapping chart created for Match #2

────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

#3 MATCH (Score: 0.997) - 28 features
📅 Period: 2024-08-21 00:00:00 to 2024-10-20 00:00:00
🔍 Current Signal Date: 2025-05-29 00:00:00 (Today's analysis date)
🔍 Key Comparisons:
   Days since ATH : Now    7.0 | Then  220.0 | Diff -213.0
   % from ATH     : Now   -5.7 | Then   -6.5 | Diff   +0.8
   30d return     : Now   10.7 | Then    2.4 | Diff   +8.3
   RSI-14         : Now   54.6 | Then   70.4 | Diff  -15.8
📈 What happened next:
   5d :   -3.5%
   10d:   +4.8%
   20d:  +11.2%
   30d:  +33.9%
   60d:  +41.1%
   90d:  +51.3%

   └─ Non-overlapping chart created for Match #3

Applying clustering filter with 10-day window...
  Filtered from 149 to 13 periods
Found 5 periods with correlation >= 0.7

Top correlated periods:
1. 2022-09-15 to 2023-02-05 (Year: 2022, Correlation: 0.8411)
   Extended to: 2023-08-04 (+180 days)
2. 2023-06-18 to 2023-11-08 (Year: 2023, Correlation: 0.8337)
   Extended to: 2024-05-06 (+180 days)
3. 2013-04-27 to 2013-09-17 (Year: 2013, Correlation: 0.8141)
   Extended to: 2014-03-16 (+180 days)
4. 2020-01-14 to 2020-06-05 (Year: 2020, Correlation: 0.7860)
   Extended to: 2020-12-02 (+180 days)
5. 2015-06-22 to 2015-11-12 (Year: 2015, Correlation: 0.7833)
   Extended to: 2016-05-10 (+180 days)

Detailed correlation results:
  start_date   end_date  correlation  year  period_length  extended_length
0 2022-09-15 2023-02-05     0.841071  2022            144              324
1 2023-06-18 2023-11-08     0.833678  2023            144              324
2 2013-04-27 2013-09-17     0.814058  2013            144              324
3 2020-01-14 2020-06-05     0.786026  2020            144              324
4 2015-06-22 2015-11-12     0.783315  2015            144              324

Best match details:
Period: 2022-09-15 to 2023-02-05
Correlation: 0.8411

Conversion successful!
Created: C:/Users/Chris/Python/format_csv.py
Before update data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-05-30
  Number of rows: 5002

CSV is already up to date.
After update (unchanged) data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-05-30
  Number of rows: 5002

Moved original file to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\Old\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv_20250531_065258
Copied updated file back to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv
Before update data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-05-30
  Number of rows: 5002

CSV is already up to date.
After update (unchanged) data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-05-30
  Number of rows: 5002

Moved original file to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\Old\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv_20250531_065258
Copied updated file back to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv

✅ Complete Bitcoin analysis completed successfully!

FORWARD RETURNS ANALYSIS
================================================================================
Current 30-day return: 10.42%
Similar periods threshold: ±0.50%
Filters applied: Cycle Years: Year1, Quarters: 1, 2, 3
Total similar periods found: 4
================================================================================

Forward Returns Summary:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Window     Count    Median     Mean       Min        Max        % Positive  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  7 days        4       7.50%       4.93%     -15.74%      20.44%       75.0%
 14 days        4      15.03%      16.52%       2.15%      33.86%      100.0%
 30 days        4      57.29%      47.40%     -10.81%      85.82%       75.0%
 90 days        4     226.08%     211.22%     -37.09%     429.82%       75.0%
180 days        4     364.07%     313.18%     -20.86%     545.42%       75.0%
365 days        4     424.81%    1583.86%     -19.15%    5504.96%       75.0%

Top 5 Similar Periods (with 90-day forward returns):
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Start Date   End Date     Forward Return  Cycle Year   Quarter 
2021-03-26   2021-06-24   -37.09%       Year1        1       
2017-04-20   2017-07-19    83.54%       Year1        2       
2013-09-25   2013-12-24   429.82%       Year1        3       
2013-01-16   2013-04-16   368.62%       Year1        1       
================================================================================

FORWARD RETURNS ANALYSIS
================================================================================
Current 30-day return: 20.88%
Similar periods threshold: ±0.50%
Filters applied: Cycle Years: Year1, Quarters: 1, 2, 3
Total similar periods found: 4
================================================================================

Forward Returns Summary:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Window     Count    Median     Mean       Min        Max        % Positive  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  7 days        4      -1.28%      -1.08%      -2.88%       1.11%       25.0%
 14 days        4       4.84%       9.13%      -0.02%      26.86%       75.0%
 30 days        4      16.63%      23.87%       8.94%      53.26%      100.0%
 90 days        4     303.08%     301.10%      15.56%     582.66%      100.0%
180 days        4     347.04%     275.08%       1.59%     404.66%      100.0%
365 days        4     261.05%     301.64%     -54.51%     738.96%       75.0%

Top 5 Similar Periods (with 90-day forward returns):
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Start Date   End Date     Forward Return  Cycle Year   Quarter 
2021-09-21   2021-12-20    15.56%       Year1        3       
2017-03-22   2017-06-20   164.08%       Year1        1       
2013-09-17   2013-12-16   442.08%       Year1        3       
2013-09-16   2013-12-15   582.66%       Year1        3       
================================================================================

===== Bitcoin 50% Recovery Points from 30%+ Drawdowns in 2024-2025 =====
Total recovery points found: 2

----- Average Statistics -----
Average Drawdown: 32.4%

Average Forward Returns:
7 days: -2.9% (Win rate: 50.0%)
14 days: 0.7% (Win rate: 50.0%)
30 days: 3.6% (Win rate: 50.0%)
60 days: 0.8% (Win rate: 100.0%)
90 days: 22.6% (Win rate: 100.0%)
180 days: 58.5% (Win rate: 100.0%)

===== Bitcoin 50% Recovery Points from 30%+ Drawdowns Cycle Year(s): Year1 =====
Total recovery points found: 14

Showing 3 out of 14 recovery points (sorted by drawdown size)

Recovery Point #1 (sorted by drawdown size):
Date: 2013-10-18 00:00:00
Year: 2013 | Cycle_year: Year1 | Quarter: 4 | Month: October
Price at recovery: $152.89
Previous peak (high): $259.34
Drawdown low: $45.00
Drawdown amount: $214.34 (82.6%)
Recovery amount: $107.89 (50.3%)

Forward Returns:
7d: 22.0% | 14d: 32.2% | 30d: 212.2% | 60d: 341.5% | 90d: 444.1% | 180d: 660.2%

Recovery Point #2 (sorted by drawdown size):
Date: 2017-01-01 00:00:00
Year: 2017 | Cycle_year: Year1 | Quarter: 1 | Month: January
Price at recovery: $997.75
Previous peak (high): $1163.00
Drawdown low: $382.21
Drawdown amount: $780.79 (67.1%)
Recovery amount: $615.54 (78.8%)

Forward Returns:
7d: -8.8% | 14d: -17.6% | 30d: -3.4% | 60d: 26.0% | 90d: 8.6% | 180d: 147.1%

Recovery Point #3 (sorted by drawdown size):
Date: 2021-08-13 00:00:00
Year: 2021 | Cycle_year: Year1 | Quarter: 3 | Month: August
Price at recovery: $47860.58
Previous peak (high): $64895.22
Drawdown low: $28600.00
Drawdown amount: $36295.22 (55.9%)
Recovery amount: $19260.58 (53.1%)

Forward Returns:
7d: 3.1% | 14d: 2.6% | 30d: -3.8% | 60d: 17.0% | 90d: 35.4% | 180d: 101.6%

----- Average Statistics -----
Average Drawdown: 43.6%

Average Forward Returns:
7 days: 13.0% (Win rate: 64.3%)
14 days: 25.3% (Win rate: 71.4%)
30 days: 57.4% (Win rate: 71.4%)
60 days: 91.7% (Win rate: 92.3%)
90 days: 135.9% (Win rate: 100.0%)
180 days: 364.6% (Win rate: 100.0%)

🎯 COMPLETE ANALYSIS FOR Year1
============================================================
🔄 Calculating days since 20-day highs/lows...

📊 CURRENT STATUS (20-DAY WINDOW):
Days since 20-day high: 7
Days since 20-day low: 17
20-day high: $111970.17
20-day low: $100764.00
Current close: $105641.76
Current cycle year: Year1
Current month: May
Current quarter: Q2
------------------------------------------------------------

🧪 HISTORICAL TESTING - 20-DAY WINDOW:
============================================================

🔴 Testing: Days since 20-day HIGH = 7
🔍 APPLYING FILTERS:
==================================================
📅 Cycle Year: Year1

📈 Records: 5,001 → 1,244 (24.9%)
==================================================
=== Historical Analysis: days_since_20d_high = 7 (Filtered: Year: Year1) ===
Total occurrences: 40
Date range: 2013-03-13 00:00:00 to 2025-05-29 00:00:00
Cycle Year breakdown: {'Year1': np.int64(40)}
Quarter breakdown: {1: np.int64(12), 2: np.int64(12), 3: np.int64(8), 4: np.int64(8)}
Month breakdown: {'January': np.int64(5), 'March': np.int64(4), 'May': np.int64(4), 'April': np.int64(4), 'June': np.int64(4), 'October': np.int64(4), 'September': np.int64(3), 'August': np.int64(3), 'February': np.int64(3), 'July': np.int64(2), 'December': np.int64(2), 'November': np.int64(2)}

--- 1-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 1.44%
Median return: 0.87%
Win rate: 59.0%
Best return: 21.47%
Worst return: -9.49%
Standard deviation: 5.64%
68% of returns fall between: -4.20% to 7.08%

--- 5-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 4.85%
Median return: 4.20%
Win rate: 74.4%
Best return: 37.52%
Worst return: -25.09%
Standard deviation: 11.31%
68% of returns fall between: -6.46% to 16.17%

--- 10-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 7.74%
Median return: 7.05%
Win rate: 64.1%
Best return: 58.69%
Worst return: -16.34%
Standard deviation: 15.72%
68% of returns fall between: -7.98% to 23.47%

--- 20-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 19.07%
Median return: 5.50%
Win rate: 74.4%
Best return: 194.29%
Worst return: -17.86%
Standard deviation: 40.97%
68% of returns fall between: -21.91% to 60.04%


🟢 Testing: Days since 20-day LOW = 17
🔍 APPLYING FILTERS:
==================================================
📅 Cycle Year: Year1

📈 Records: 5,001 → 1,244 (24.9%)
==================================================
=== Historical Analysis: days_since_20d_low = 17 (Filtered: Year: Year1) ===
Total occurrences: 86
Date range: 2013-01-04 00:00:00 to 2025-05-29 00:00:00
Cycle Year breakdown: {'Year1': np.int64(86)}
Quarter breakdown: {1: np.int64(24), 2: np.int64(24), 3: np.int64(19), 4: np.int64(19)}
Month breakdown: {'May': np.int64(11), 'August': np.int64(10), 'March': np.int64(9), 'October': np.int64(9), 'January': np.int64(8), 'April': np.int64(8), 'February': np.int64(7), 'November': np.int64(6), 'September': np.int64(5), 'June': np.int64(5), 'July': np.int64(4), 'December': np.int64(4)}

--- 1-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 0.41%
Median return: 0.53%
Win rate: 58.8%
Best return: 15.33%
Worst return: -29.26%
Standard deviation: 5.23%
68% of returns fall between: -4.82% to 5.64%

--- 5-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 3.81%
Median return: 2.96%
Win rate: 67.1%
Best return: 48.64%
Worst return: -60.21%
Standard deviation: 14.09%
68% of returns fall between: -10.29% to 17.90%

--- 10-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 7.77%
Median return: 4.28%
Win rate: 59.5%
Best return: 106.22%
Worst return: -48.60%
Standard deviation: 23.40%
68% of returns fall between: -15.63% to 31.18%

--- 20-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 16.62%
Median return: 10.13%
Win rate: 63.9%
Best return: 246.69%
Worst return: -37.42%
Standard deviation: 41.06%
68% of returns fall between: -24.44% to 57.67%


📊 SUMMARY COMPARISON TABLE (20-DAY WINDOW - Year: Year1):
================================================================================
Signal Type              Occurrences  1D Avg  5D Avg  10D Avg  20D Avg  1D Win%  5D Win%  10D Win%  20D Win%  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Days Since 20D High = 7  40           1.4%    4.9%    7.7%     19.1%    59%      74%      64%       74%       
Days Since 20D Low = 17  86           0.4%    3.8%    7.8%     16.6%    59%      67%      60%       64%       
================================================================================

⚡ QUICK INSIGHTS (20-DAY WINDOW - Year: Year1):
📈 20D High Signal (7d): 20-day avg 19.1% | Best: 194% | Worst: -18%
   └─ 68% of returns fall between: -21.9% to +60.0% (±1 std dev)
📉 20D Low Signal (17d): 20-day avg 16.6% | Best: 247% | Worst: -37%
   └─ 68% of returns fall between: -24.4% to +57.7% (±1 std dev)
================================================================================

📈 Creating original visualizations...
🔍 APPLYING FILTERS:
==================================================
📅 Cycle Year: Year1

📈 Records: 5,001 → 1,244 (24.9%)
==================================================

📈 CREATING INDIVIDUAL YEAR CHARTS FOR Year1:
============================================================

🔴 High Signal Charts (20D High = 7 days):
📅 Creating individual charts for Year1: [np.int32(2013), np.int32(2017), np.int32(2021), np.int32(2025)]

🟢 Low Signal Charts (20D Low = 17 days):
📅 Creating individual charts for Year1: [np.int32(2013), np.int32(2017), np.int32(2021), np.int32(2025)]

Bitcoin performance after first all time high in 30 days (Year1)
================================================================
      Date Bitcoin Close High Price Cycle Year   Week  Month 3 Month 6 Month    Year
01/21/2013         16.52      16.98      Year1  13.01  81.60  619.19  414.77 4893.28
02/20/2013         30.00      30.07      Year1   4.37 133.00  291.67  242.83 1772.87
03/25/2013         75.11      80.00      Year1  39.40  98.38   33.68   64.28  677.22
11/06/2013        263.24     265.00      Year1  49.48 207.71  205.04   64.49   32.95
02/23/2017      1,188.11   1,193.92      Year1   5.80 -19.53  103.71  243.82  755.65
04/30/2017      1,350.21   1,356.00      Year1  15.09  63.20   98.53  327.48  584.50
06/06/2017      2,880.74   2,933.00      Year1  -6.17  -9.73   48.47  290.52  165.85
08/05/2017      3,263.62   3,339.66      Year1  18.12  31.05  118.98  175.74  115.48
10/12/2017      5,445.00   5,445.00      Year1   4.66  16.71  173.46   25.54   13.59
11/16/2017      7,846.96   7,976.79      Year1   1.81 144.53   20.95    8.00  -29.80
12/16/2017     19,187.78  19,377.00      Year1 -23.81 -29.08  -56.96  -65.36  -83.36
01/01/2021     29,402.64  29,700.00      Year1  38.31  12.72   99.74   19.16   62.49
02/08/2021     46,416.45  46,712.12      Year1   3.29  20.33   25.61   -3.89   -5.01
03/13/2021     61,165.19  61,781.83      Year1  -4.95  -2.18  -38.95  -24.15  -38.22
04/13/2021     63,564.48  63,769.00      Year1 -11.11 -21.82  -47.92  -13.92  -35.27
10/20/2021     65,990.31  67,016.50      Year1 -11.40 -11.91  -35.78  -38.15  -71.14
01/20/2025    102,141.00 109,356.00      Year1  -0.05  -5.38  -16.59    5.99    5.99
05/21/2025    109,682.00 110,730.00      Year1  -1.30  -1.30   -1.30   -1.30   -1.30
   Average                                       7.47  39.35   91.20   96.44  489.77
    Median                                       3.83  14.71   41.08   22.35   23.27
% Positive                                       61.1   55.6    66.7    66.7    61.1

Found 155 total ATHs to analyze

Analyzing 14-day pause ATHs...
Found 14 ATHs with 14-day pause
Bitcoin Forward Returns FROM Pause End - 14 day pauses (Year1)
==============================================================
  ATH Date        ATH Days   End Date  End Price Decline Cycle     1W  1W DD 1W Max     2W  2W DD 2W Max     1M  1M DD 1M Max     2M  2M DD 2M Max     3M  3M DD 3M Max     6M  6M DD 6M Max     1Y  1Y DD  1Y Max
04/10/2013     162.00   14 04/24/2013     149.00   -8.02 Year1 -21.64 -29.60  14.28 -24.05 -45.30  14.28 -13.62 -45.30  14.28 -32.61 -45.30  14.28 -41.62 -57.72  14.28  20.89 -57.72  22.10 237.05 -57.72  680.54
11/30/2013   1,119.80   14 12/14/2013     854.99  -23.65 Year1 -30.18 -55.30   1.75 -16.37 -55.30   1.75  -3.74 -55.30  16.38 -23.66 -55.30  16.38 -26.27 -55.30  16.38 -33.44 -60.26  16.38 -58.30 -67.84   16.38
03/10/2017   1,116.97   14 03/24/2017     929.06  -16.82 Year1  15.20  -4.06  16.35  28.16  -4.06  29.38  33.68  -4.06  34.79 143.71  -4.06 144.87 192.07  -4.06 220.75 317.03  -4.06 436.01 819.96  -4.06 2016.76
06/12/2017   2,667.06   14 06/26/2017   2,421.22   -9.22 Year1   5.34  -5.38   7.18  -4.04  -6.58   9.01   4.29 -24.42  21.34  79.91 -24.42  85.03  51.34 -24.42 105.68 503.79 -24.42 712.24 150.62 -24.42  712.24
09/02/2017   4,599.90   14 09/16/2017   3,678.93  -20.02 Year1   2.72  -5.87  12.06  17.59  -5.87  18.21  56.18  -5.87  58.92  98.26  -5.87 114.41 374.91  -5.87 387.48 124.66  -5.87 434.56  76.68  -5.87  434.56
12/17/2017  18,953.00   14 12/31/2017  13,880.00  -26.77 Year1  16.17  -7.77  24.17  -1.67  -7.78  24.17 -28.16 -33.56  24.17 -21.45 -57.34  24.17 -50.08 -57.34  24.17 -55.30 -58.40  24.17 -73.39 -77.51   24.17
01/08/2021  40,667.07   14 01/22/2021  32,992.06  -18.87 Year1   3.81 -11.64  17.06  16.15 -11.64  17.45  74.26 -11.64  76.87  64.77 -11.64  87.26  56.66 -11.64  96.70  -2.59 -13.31  96.70   6.36 -13.31  109.14
02/21/2021  57,492.91   14 03/07/2021  50,967.30  -11.35 Year1  15.79  -3.24  21.22  12.59  -3.24  21.22  13.83  -3.24  21.22  10.75  -7.78  27.33 -30.28 -41.01  27.33  -1.85 -43.89  27.33 -25.41 -43.89   35.38
03/13/2021  61,165.19   14 03/27/2021  55,839.42   -8.71 Year1   2.19  -2.08   7.64   7.03  -2.08   9.64  -3.16 -15.82  16.22 -29.60 -46.16  16.22 -43.41 -48.78  16.22 -19.58 -48.78  16.22 -16.07 -48.78   23.57
04/14/2021  62,986.09   14 04/28/2021  54,901.97  -12.83 Year1   4.75  -4.59   7.46 -10.05 -11.61   8.56 -34.99 -45.24   8.56 -36.80 -47.91   8.56 -28.10 -47.91   8.56  14.93 -47.91  22.07 -27.59 -47.91   25.68
10/20/2021  65,990.31   14 11/03/2021  62,930.72   -4.64 Year1   3.16  -4.48   9.64  -4.06  -7.20   9.64 -14.60 -18.07   9.64 -24.76 -33.31   9.64 -38.45 -47.64   9.64 -38.79 -47.64   9.64 -67.89 -72.04    9.64
11/10/2021  64,921.43   14 11/24/2021  57,185.06  -11.92 Year1   0.12  -6.78   3.95 -11.61 -26.61   3.95 -11.09 -26.61   3.95 -36.53 -40.54   3.95 -33.08 -42.38   3.95 -49.14 -55.58   3.95 -70.99 -72.93    3.95
01/20/2025 102,141.00   14 02/03/2025 101,457.00   -0.67 Year1  -3.93  -6.63   0.32  -5.60  -7.26   0.32 -10.69 -22.93   0.32 -17.35 -24.50   0.32  -7.04 -26.63   0.32   6.70 -26.63  10.39   6.70 -26.63   10.39
   Average                                        -13.35         1.04 -11.34  11.01   0.31 -14.96  12.89   4.78 -24.00  23.59  13.43 -31.09  42.49  28.97 -36.21  71.65  60.56 -38.04 140.90  73.67 -43.30  315.57
    Median                                        -11.92         3.16  -5.87   9.64  -4.04  -7.26   9.64  -3.74 -22.93  16.38 -21.45 -33.31  16.38 -28.10 -42.38  16.38  -1.85 -47.64  22.10 -16.07 -47.91   25.68
% Positive                                                       76.9    0.0  100.0   38.5    0.0  100.0   38.5    0.0  100.0   38.5    0.0  100.0   30.8    0.0  100.0   46.2    0.0  100.0   46.2    0.0   100.0

Breakdown by Pause Period:
  14-day pause: 13 ATHs

Deployment complete!