testing hello testing
Updated at 2025-05-31 20:54:04.661073
Conversion successful!
Created: C:/Users/Chris/Python/format_csv.py
Before update data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-05-30
  Number of rows: 5002

CSV is already up to date.
After update (unchanged) data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-05-30
  Number of rows: 5002

Moved original file to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\Old\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv_20250531_083855
Copied updated file back to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv
Before update data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-05-30
  Number of rows: 5002

CSV is already up to date.
After update (unchanged) data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-05-30
  Number of rows: 5002

Moved original file to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\Old\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv_20250531_083855
Copied updated file back to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv

✅ Complete Bitcoin analysis completed successfully!
Output folder: C:\Users\Chris\Downloads\btc_report\btc_report_2025-05-24.4
Success with webpdf! PDF saved to: C:\Users\Chris\Downloads\btc_report\btc_report_2025-05-24.4\btc_report_2025-05-24.pdf
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1-Month Period Performance:
  Rank Period Mean Return Median Return Success Rate Min Return Max Return Count Is Current 4 Mean 4 Median 4 Success 4 Count 1 Mean 1 Median 1 Success 1 Count 2 Mean 2 Median 2 Success 2 Count 3 Mean 3 Median 3 Success 3 Count
9 1 October 16.708239 14.596452 72.941176 -31.958763 61.219802 425 False 10.933955 12.745795 75.000000 124 49.975623 48.730378 100.000000 93 -4.048506 -4.463919 33.333333 93 12.817125 28.540701 80.9% 115
1 2 February 11.478221 11.632250 71.212121 -31.494396 65.172414 396 False 10.850846 4.711207 50.000000 116 26.929632 30.103910 75.000000 112 -5.886182 1.634744 66.666667 84 9.107117 11.063395 100.0% 84
10 3 November 40.821275 11.544720 65.060241 -37.012293 450.162130 415 False 24.898990 25.188214 100.000000 120 165.874914 54.605206 66.666667 90 -13.894289 -16.215293 33.333333 90 2.388643 8.803762 52.2% 115
6 4 July 10.186790 9.920591 69.230769 -9.056250 40.606061 403 False 15.403052 13.692184 75.000000 124 14.697911 15.831806 100.000000 93 9.588578 16.842772 66.666667 93 -0.681137 -4.063146 33.3% 93
0 5 January 5.724824 9.699454 57.540603 -32.429907 54.531722 431 False 8.053369 8.215224 75.000000 124 19.570423 11.996578 75.000000 124 -11.306391 -16.738222 33.333333 93 1.039370 -7.600200 34.4% 90
3 6 April 11.254897 5.397477 64.285714 -17.316107 46.471204 420 False 7.405229 5.189520 75.000000 120 21.220719 20.068815 75.000000 120 4.935164 -1.310437 33.333333 90 9.419757 2.665402 66.7% 90
4 7 May 9.874538 4.655870 57.043880 -35.385043 70.364302 433 True 11.011360 10.394559 100.000000 124 9.203308 -8.550797 49.593496 123 1.754902 -15.611611 33.333333 93 17.366169 -3.197023 33.3% 93
5 8 June 1.290665 2.120102 53.846154 -37.297881 27.852998 390 False 10.713984 11.083742 50.000000 120 -9.550328 -6.015737 33.333333 90 -16.649083 -14.769469 33.333333 90 17.506980 14.673889 100.0% 90
2 9 March 12.267052 -1.956171 42.857143 -32.829600 186.758127 434 False -3.746775 -3.430710 25.000000 124 51.094224 13.882171 50.000000 124 -15.030623 -17.573396 33.333333 93 9.146932 8.046911 66.7% 93
8 10 September -4.032625 -3.112375 36.319613 -39.750000 19.803922 413 False 6.542976 6.959184 75.000000 120 -5.626852 -6.968862 0.000000 90 -9.141489 -5.957570 0.000000 90 -9.924608 2.584148 53.1% 113
11 11 December 6.642505 -3.203035 49.651972 -34.614835 47.145156 431 False 20.255268 18.539476 75.000000 124 -4.586390 -18.960943 33.333333 93 -8.449211 -6.982894 0.000000 93 12.922127 11.998092 74.4% 121
7 12 August 1.666698 -8.313253 37.712895 -26.605505 65.776435 411 False -1.238046 -2.849088 50.000000 124 36.784920 30.919505 100.000000 93 -13.651142 -13.863217 0.000000 93 -12.999117 -11.255604 0.0% 101
2-Month Period Performance:
  Rank Period Mean Return Median Return Success Rate Min Return Max Return Count Is Current 4 Mean 4 Median 4 Success 4 Count 1 Mean 1 Median 1 Success 1 Count 2 Mean 2 Median 2 Success 2 Count 3 Mean 3 Median 3 Success 3 Count
10 1 November-December 40.265119 27.457241 64.285714 -41.418035 259.634470 14 False 50.527870 35.823319 100.000000 4 116.892114 115.720893 66.666667 3 -21.930960 -19.348070 0.000000 3 19.179182 29.924356 75.0% 4
9 2 October-November 79.098668 25.987918 64.285714 -39.812270 786.970297 14 False 39.704846 37.142032 100.000000 4 315.629640 129.945979 100.000000 3 -18.205098 -11.581441 0.000000 3 14.072085 15.402144 50.0% 4
8 3 September-October 11.465651 18.804455 71.428571 -58.750000 59.139953 14 False 16.893454 18.804455 100.000000 4 41.757452 35.907407 100.000000 3 -12.452064 -10.155820 33.333333 3 1.257285 14.532349 50.0% 4
3 4 April-May 23.414375 17.085351 64.285714 -36.483355 114.498665 14 False 18.891402 16.992634 75.000000 4 34.488711 29.969768 75.000000 4 5.325905 8.168339 66.666667 3 32.767696 -4.414244 33.3% 3
1 5 February-March 34.180277 12.272828 64.285714 -43.358655 373.645320 14 False 9.357892 0.568554 50.000000 4 110.701806 44.282342 75.000000 4 -18.937472 -31.730941 33.333333 3 18.365834 19.989806 100.0% 3
5 6 June-July 11.072967 11.293596 69.230769 -26.605765 79.497099 13 False 28.156414 18.712754 75.000000 4 4.164085 11.293596 66.666667 3 -10.260947 -7.288946 33.333333 3 16.537835 18.015165 100.0% 3
11 7 December-January 12.599230 9.475761 64.285714 -42.327634 68.200216 14 False 42.349750 47.520229 100.000000 4 -19.514037 -28.272831 33.333333 3 -7.213865 -14.039581 33.333333 3 21.793482 18.087095 75.0% 4
4 8 May-June 14.126297 5.831475 69.230769 -47.062870 104.259415 13 True 22.999282 19.818572 100.000000 4 2.472603 -35.990563 33.333333 3 -11.731168 -30.916827 33.333333 3 39.806811 11.007739 100.0% 3
0 9 January-February 18.647726 5.795879 64.285714 -25.685159 153.247734 14 False 18.445645 14.021501 100.000000 4 55.713504 39.637789 75.000000 4 -19.044846 -24.849727 0.000000 3 7.188704 2.639793 66.7% 3
2 10 March-April 27.827850 1.930398 64.285714 -18.657122 317.178646 14 False 0.799067 0.700318 75.000000 4 92.469689 20.500037 100.000000 4 -13.990771 -12.914598 0.000000 3 19.495729 26.306921 66.7% 3
6 11 July-August 13.690420 0.492921 53.846154 -25.150000 92.021838 13 False 15.309307 10.821040 50.000000 4 56.561594 43.160720 100.000000 3 -4.922102 0.492921 66.666667 3 -12.726749 -12.460964 0.0% 3
7 12 August-September 0.137788 -5.104429 30.769231 -32.979744 51.483817 13 False 5.564187 -2.159928 25.000000 4 28.755379 29.129590 100.000000 3 -21.392457 -16.585722 0.000000 3 -14.184757 -17.032562 0.0% 3
3-Month Period Performance:
  Rank Period Mean Return Median Return Success Rate Min Return Max Return Count Is Current 4 Mean 4 Median 4 Success 4 Count 1 Mean 1 Median 1 Success 1 Count 2 Mean 2 Median 2 Success 2 Count 3 Mean 3 Median 3 Success 3 Count
10 1 November-January 47.090922 30.529970 78.571429 -45.862321 294.517048 14 False 77.586054 65.940942 100.000000 4 104.995364 57.734247 66.666667 3 -22.945218 -35.826504 33.333333 3 25.694562 20.642961 100.0% 4
9 2 October-December 73.814022 27.942412 64.285714 -44.022165 479.801980 14 False 70.921189 53.159969 100.000000 4 235.357620 220.843995 100.000000 3 -25.502996 -17.599343 0.000000 3 30.036921 25.573624 50.0% 4
8 3 September-November 74.256586 25.938819 64.285714 -60.125000 775.527756 14 False 46.101446 46.782846 100.000000 4 302.188854 110.120906 100.000000 3 -26.350635 -21.293919 0.000000 3 6.917942 12.093824 50.0% 4
4 4 May-July 23.517576 20.239354 61.538462 -38.035903 111.717128 13 True 41.292484 35.357287 100.000000 4 17.925403 -28.206167 33.333333 3 -8.276271 -16.423199 33.333333 3 37.203717 20.239354 66.7% 3
1 5 February-April 55.455776 15.003202 57.142857 -44.103362 589.064039 14 False 11.743267 7.027285 50.000000 4 173.897114 57.278985 75.000000 4 -18.410320 -8.935076 0.000000 3 29.683431 26.372439 100.0% 3
11 6 December-February 29.231020 14.167686 64.285714 -50.862870 170.621469 14 False 87.040715 95.067925 75.000000 4 -23.747340 -24.283641 33.333333 3 -0.779689 -4.513217 33.333333 3 33.663126 29.878608 100.0% 4
2 7 March-May 37.144868 12.289427 71.428571 -27.365126 281.479272 14 False 11.627996 10.566295 100.000000 4 95.061622 58.132920 75.000000 4 -13.368014 -26.512024 33.333333 3 44.457907 17.596993 66.7% 3
7 8 August-October 22.149216 11.969478 69.230769 -42.079378 125.302454 13 False 15.210635 15.251980 100.000000 4 93.792542 108.182469 100.000000 3 -24.160420 -18.423808 0.000000 3 6.066968 8.953599 66.7% 3
3 9 April-June 28.015231 7.612840 61.538462 -56.230706 162.953260 13 False 31.557926 38.619183 75.000000 4 27.825806 -6.251309 33.333333 3 -7.692032 -7.807551 33.333333 3 59.188325 7.612840 100.0% 3
0 10 January-March 54.244875 2.722598 50.000000 -50.081988 626.208459 14 False 15.395578 1.610138 50.000000 4 182.022344 56.730146 75.000000 4 -29.829482 -37.864754 0.000000 3 19.748337 10.889181 66.7% 3
6 11 July-September 11.878692 0.998787 53.846154 -38.892188 85.151515 13 False 23.848668 9.481279 75.000000 4 47.232605 41.203445 100.000000 3 -12.751564 -2.683335 33.333333 3 -14.804935 -11.496931 0.0% 3
5 12 June-August 14.477615 0.415010 61.538462 -36.875847 106.015640 13 False 28.618266 15.306495 75.000000 4 44.231841 26.492031 100.000000 3 -22.303405 -23.695444 0.000000 3 2.650208 0.415010 66.7% 3
6-Month Period Performance:
  Rank Period Mean Return Median Return Success Rate Min Return Max Return Count Is Current 4 Mean 4 Median 4 Success 4 Count 1 Mean 1 Median 1 Success 1 Count 2 Mean 2 Median 2 Success 2 Count 3 Mean 3 Median 3 Success 3 Count
8 1 September-February 86.188878 66.010952 64.285714 -47.084612 330.101642 14 False 167.120993 168.717541 100.000000 4 146.539822 117.877768 66.666667 3 -25.882291 -45.959537 33.333333 3 44.046931 38.957892 50.0% 4
9 2 October-March 125.229225 53.399416 78.571429 -37.917394 687.469287 14 False 309.754869 260.611115 100.000000 4 108.085649 60.158943 100.000000 3 -9.527043 -37.303625 33.333333 3 54.628464 38.415578 75.0% 4
7 3 August-January 103.324481 45.641833 61.538462 -62.830312 721.315332 13 False 106.406105 89.488601 100.000000 4 323.157322 255.380785 66.666667 3 -39.782312 -55.827925 0.000000 3 22.489603 29.435526 66.7% 3
11 4 December-May 103.978096 45.302966 71.428571 -44.302516 932.364810 14 False 309.840976 149.598078 100.000000 4 -37.584453 -43.922395 0.000000 3 44.897845 58.563439 66.666667 3 48.597315 45.302966 100.0% 4
6 5 July-December 121.971660 45.018234 69.230769 -49.843750 718.700369 13 False 102.982519 74.798052 100.000000 4 404.496695 462.973539 100.000000 3 -36.401360 -42.163411 0.000000 3 23.138499 38.691785 66.7% 3
0 6 January-June 81.650245 44.323144 69.230769 -56.900519 576.208459 13 False 43.800000 46.320311 100.000000 4 250.721648 155.136908 100.000000 3 -41.103543 -53.993444 0.000000 3 85.799622 84.325469 66.7% 3
10 7 November-April 135.980408 43.928610 71.428571 -38.654002 1171.636364 14 False 404.544530 206.192305 100.000000 4 41.836064 43.640430 66.666667 3 -1.294194 -16.424776 33.333333 3 40.980495 47.409600 75.0% 4
5 8 June-November 111.694283 42.848044 69.230769 -46.997977 776.487163 13 False 82.812047 75.717317 100.000000 4 387.399039 332.881928 100.000000 3 -44.304241 -45.967311 0.000000 3 30.497699 38.570904 66.7% 3
4 9 May-October 54.157954 31.170973 76.923077 -45.540211 377.003885 13 True 63.518998 57.766111 100.000000 4 142.900028 45.520841 100.000000 3 -34.024246 -31.808696 0.000000 3 41.116688 31.170973 100.0% 3
1 10 February-July 75.204859 30.402678 76.923077 -39.396121 384.137931 13 False 52.641101 59.834331 100.000000 4 201.898537 196.248924 100.000000 3 -30.264249 -27.516812 0.000000 3 84.065300 30.402678 100.0% 3
2 11 March-August 62.142971 12.036637 61.538462 -53.590453 297.449545 13 False 41.854168 33.698355 75.000000 4 194.460990 281.747689 100.000000 3 -32.915262 -31.969396 0.000000 3 51.934924 12.036637 66.7% 3
3 12 April-September 44.755799 -3.168942 46.153846 -57.328822 303.801781 13 False 63.255941 57.169211 75.000000 4 103.520605 32.198953 66.666667 3 -25.361489 -14.010246 0.000000 3 31.441426 -3.168942 33.3% 3
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Analysis includes data from 14 years: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

Historical Year-End Returns (Full Year):
2013 (Cycle Year 1): +5437.07%
2017 (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13%
2020 (Cycle Year 4): +303.87%
2012 (Cycle Year 4): +164.80%
2023 (Cycle Year 3): +154.34%
2016 (Cycle Year 4): +122.74%
2024 (Cycle Year 4): +111.33%
2019 (Cycle Year 3): +87.48%
2021 (Cycle Year 1): +57.18%
2015 (Cycle Year 3): +37.31%
2014 (Cycle Year 2): -57.44%
2011 (Cycle Year 3): -57.98%
2022 (Cycle Year 2): -65.41%
2018 (Cycle Year 2): -72.53%

Average Year-End Return: +536.71%
Median Year-End Return: +111.33%

Returns by Cycle Year:
Cycle Year 1 (years: 2013, 2017, 2021):
  Average: +2261.79%
  Sample size: 3 years
Cycle Year 2 (years: 2014, 2022, 2018):
  Average: -65.12%
  Sample size: 3 years
Cycle Year 3 (years: 2023, 2019, 2015, 2011):
  Average: +55.29%
  Sample size: 4 years
Cycle Year 4 (years: 2020, 2012, 2016, 2024):
  Average: +175.69%
  Sample size: 4 years
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Analysis includes 3 years matching cycle year(s) Year 1: 2013, 2017, 2021

Historical Year-End Returns (Full Year):
2013 (Cycle Year 1): +5437.07%
2017 (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13%
2021 (Cycle Year 1): +57.18%

Average Year-End Return (Cycle Year 1): +2261.79%
Median Year-End Return (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13%

Returns by Cycle Year:
Cycle Year 1 (years: 2013, 2017, 2021):
  Average: +2261.79%
  Sample size: 3 years
Calculating best fit line from start to end of data...
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============================================================
BEST FIT LINE FROM START TO END SUMMARY:
============================================================
Total Data Period: 5001 days
R-squared: 0.886270
Scale Type: Log Scale
Daily Growth Rate: 0.1834%
Annual Growth Rate: 95.15%

Historical Performance:
Start Price: $10.90
End Price: $105641.76
Total Change: $105630.86 (969090.44%)

1000-Day Projection:
Projected Price: $1507527.44
Projected Change: $1401885.68 (1327.02%)

Valuation Oscillator Summary:
Current Deviation: -56.24%
Max Overvaluation: 1061.48%
Max Undervaluation: -92.21%
🟢 Currently UNDERVALUED relative to long-term trend
Finding top 3 best fitting linear regression channels for BTC (log scale)...

Top 3 Best Fitting Linear Regression Channels (Log Scale):
================================================================================

1. Window Size: 1000 days
   R-squared: 0.933998
   Daily Growth Rate: 0.1937%
   Annual Growth Rate: 102.65%
   Price Change: $85801.76 (432.47%)
   Start Price: $19840.00
   End Price: $105641.76

2. Window Size: 60 days
   R-squared: 0.919839
   Daily Growth Rate: 0.5965%
   Annual Growth Rate: 776.64%
   Price Change: $23103.76 (27.99%)
   Start Price: $82538.00
   End Price: $105641.76

3. Window Size: 750 days
   R-squared: 0.885403
   Daily Growth Rate: 0.1983%
   Annual Growth Rate: 106.11%
   Price Change: $78650.76 (291.40%)
   Start Price: $26991.00
   End Price: $105641.76

Plotting the top 3 regression channels with adaptive projections...
(Windows ≤100 days: +30d projection, Windows >100 days: +180d projection)
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Results stored in 'top_channels' variable

============================================================
SUMMARY - TOP 3 BEST FITTING CHANNELS:
============================================================

#1. 1000 days | R² = 0.933998
     Annual Growth: 102.65%
     Price Range: $19840 → $105642 (432.5%)

     PRICE PROJECTIONS:
     +30 days: $120,897 ($90,279 - $161,898)
     +60 days: $128,123 ($95,670 - $171,585)
     +90 days: $135,781 ($101,382 - $181,851)

#2. 60 days | R² = 0.919839
     Annual Growth: 776.64%
     Price Range: $82538 → $105642 (28.0%)

     PRICE PROJECTIONS:
     +30 days: $134,116 ($125,419 - $143,417)
     +60 days: $160,315 ($148,941 - $172,558)
     +90 days: $191,631 ($176,563 - $207,985)

#3. 750 days | R² = 0.885403
     Annual Growth: 106.11%
     Price Range: $26991 → $105642 (291.4%)

     PRICE PROJECTIONS:
     +30 days: $122,628 ($90,491 - $166,177)
     +60 days: $130,138 ($96,023 - $176,374)
     +90 days: $138,109 ($101,892 - $187,198)
========================================================================================================================
                           MONTE CARLO SIMULATION SUMMARY TABLE
========================================================================================================================
Method                    Median   Risk/  99% >    95% >    75% >    Median   75% <    95% <    99% <   
Name                      Change   Reward Above    Above    Above    Price    Below    Below    Below   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard GBM (Normal)      +23.0%   3.8:1  $48,356 $65,189 $97,276 $127,889 $169,129 $252,582 $335,076
Fat Tails (Student-t)       +8.9%   2.2:1  $-8,847 $43,460 $83,030 $113,293 $152,701 $237,021 $332,247
Skewed Normal              +27.1%   4.3:1  $57,445 $73,218 $103,368 $132,131 $167,562 $235,625 $297,524
Historical Bootstrap       +24.2%   3.6:1  $46,827 $64,159 $98,426 $129,122 $167,425 $248,142 $325,948
Mixed (Bootstrap + Extremes)  +21.2%   2.9:1  $18,324 $51,407 $92,689 $126,001 $166,848 $258,548 $367,375
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE ACROSS METHODS     +20.9%   3.4:1  $32,421 $59,487 $94,958 $125,687 $164,733 $246,384 $331,634
MEDIAN ACROSS METHODS      +23.0%   3.6:1  $46,827 $64,159 $97,276 $127,889 $167,425 $248,142 $332,247
========================================================================================================================

🎯 CONSENSUS FORECAST (Average of All Methods):
• Expected Return (90 days): +20.9%
• Target Price: $125,687
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.4:1
• 95% Confidence Range: $59,487 to $246,384
• Extreme Downside (5% chance): Below $59,487 (-42.8%)
• Extreme Upside (5% chance): Above $246,384 (+136.9%)
• 📈 Probability of Profit: 67.8% chance of making money
• 📉 Probability of Loss: 32.2% chance of losing money

🎯 MARKET SIMILARITY ANALYSIS - NON-OVERLAPPING VERSION
============================================================
📊 Calculating market features...

🎯 CURRENT FEATURES ANALYSIS:
   Days since ATH: 7
   % from ATH: -5.65%
   RSI-14: 54.6

🔍 Finding similar periods...
✅ Found 6 diverse periods
📊 Analyzing top 3 most similar periods

🏆 TOP 3 SIMILAR PERIODS (NON-OVERLAPPING CHARTS)
================================================================================

#1 MATCH (Score: 0.997) - 28 features
📅 Period: 2024-09-05 00:00:00 to 2024-11-04 00:00:00
🔍 Current Signal Date: 2025-05-29 00:00:00 (Today's analysis date)
🔍 Key Comparisons:
   Days since ATH : Now    7.0 | Then  235.0 | Diff -228.0
   % from ATH     : Now   -5.7 | Then   -8.1 | Diff   +2.4
   30d return     : Now   10.7 | Then    5.9 | Diff   +4.8
   RSI-14         : Now   54.6 | Then   51.3 | Diff   +3.3
📈 What happened next:
   5d :  +13.1%
   10d:  +28.8%
   20d:  +44.5%
   30d:  +45.6%
   60d:  +44.7%
   90d:  +44.0%
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   └─ Non-overlapping chart created for Match #1

────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

#2 MATCH (Score: 0.997) - 28 features
📅 Period: 2021-07-18 00:00:00 to 2021-09-16 00:00:00
🔍 Current Signal Date: 2025-05-29 00:00:00 (Today's analysis date)
🔍 Key Comparisons:
   Days since ATH : Now    7.0 | Then  155.0 | Diff -148.0
   % from ATH     : Now   -5.7 | Then  -26.4 | Diff  +20.8
   30d return     : Now   10.7 | Then   20.9 | Diff  -10.2
   RSI-14         : Now   54.6 | Then   52.4 | Diff   +2.2
📈 What happened next:
   5d :  -15.0%
   10d:   -9.5%
   20d:  +15.9%
   30d:  +27.4%
   60d:  +33.2%
   90d:   +2.3%
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   └─ Non-overlapping chart created for Match #2

────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

#3 MATCH (Score: 0.997) - 28 features
📅 Period: 2024-08-21 00:00:00 to 2024-10-20 00:00:00
🔍 Current Signal Date: 2025-05-29 00:00:00 (Today's analysis date)
🔍 Key Comparisons:
   Days since ATH : Now    7.0 | Then  220.0 | Diff -213.0
   % from ATH     : Now   -5.7 | Then   -6.5 | Diff   +0.8
   30d return     : Now   10.7 | Then    2.4 | Diff   +8.3
   RSI-14         : Now   54.6 | Then   70.4 | Diff  -15.8
📈 What happened next:
   5d :   -3.5%
   10d:   +4.8%
   20d:  +11.2%
   30d:  +33.9%
   60d:  +41.1%
   90d:  +51.3%
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   └─ Non-overlapping chart created for Match #3
Applying clustering filter with 10-day window...
  Filtered from 149 to 13 periods
Found 5 periods with correlation >= 0.7

Top correlated periods:
1. 2022-09-15 to 2023-02-05 (Year: 2022, Correlation: 0.8411)
   Extended to: 2023-08-04 (+180 days)
2. 2023-06-18 to 2023-11-08 (Year: 2023, Correlation: 0.8337)
   Extended to: 2024-05-06 (+180 days)
3. 2013-04-27 to 2013-09-17 (Year: 2013, Correlation: 0.8141)
   Extended to: 2014-03-16 (+180 days)
4. 2020-01-14 to 2020-06-05 (Year: 2020, Correlation: 0.7860)
   Extended to: 2020-12-02 (+180 days)
5. 2015-06-22 to 2015-11-12 (Year: 2015, Correlation: 0.7833)
   Extended to: 2016-05-10 (+180 days)
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Detailed correlation results:
  start_date   end_date  correlation  year  period_length  extended_length
0 2022-09-15 2023-02-05     0.841071  2022            144              324
1 2023-06-18 2023-11-08     0.833678  2023            144              324
2 2013-04-27 2013-09-17     0.814058  2013            144              324
3 2020-01-14 2020-06-05     0.786026  2020            144              324
4 2015-06-22 2015-11-12     0.783315  2015            144              324

Best match details:
Period: 2022-09-15 to 2023-02-05
Correlation: 0.8411
Conversion successful!
Created: C:/Users/Chris/Python/format_csv.py
Before update data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-05-30
  Number of rows: 5002

CSV is already up to date.
After update (unchanged) data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-05-30
  Number of rows: 5002

Moved original file to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\Old\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv_20250531_065258
Copied updated file back to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv
Before update data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-05-30
  Number of rows: 5002

CSV is already up to date.
After update (unchanged) data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-05-30
  Number of rows: 5002

Moved original file to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\Old\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv_20250531_065258
Copied updated file back to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv

✅ Complete Bitcoin analysis completed successfully!
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FORWARD RETURNS ANALYSIS
================================================================================
Current 30-day return: 10.42%
Similar periods threshold: ±0.50%
Filters applied: Cycle Years: Year1, Quarters: 1, 2, 3
Total similar periods found: 4
================================================================================

Forward Returns Summary:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Window     Count    Median     Mean       Min        Max        % Positive  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  7 days        4       7.50%       4.93%     -15.74%      20.44%       75.0%
 14 days        4      15.03%      16.52%       2.15%      33.86%      100.0%
 30 days        4      57.29%      47.40%     -10.81%      85.82%       75.0%
 90 days        4     226.08%     211.22%     -37.09%     429.82%       75.0%
180 days        4     364.07%     313.18%     -20.86%     545.42%       75.0%
365 days        4     424.81%    1583.86%     -19.15%    5504.96%       75.0%

Top 5 Similar Periods (with 90-day forward returns):
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Start Date   End Date     Forward Return  Cycle Year   Quarter 
2021-03-26   2021-06-24   -37.09%       Year1        1       
2017-04-20   2017-07-19    83.54%       Year1        2       
2013-09-25   2013-12-24   429.82%       Year1        3       
2013-01-16   2013-04-16   368.62%       Year1        1       
================================================================================
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FORWARD RETURNS ANALYSIS
================================================================================
Current 30-day return: 20.88%
Similar periods threshold: ±0.50%
Filters applied: Cycle Years: Year1, Quarters: 1, 2, 3
Total similar periods found: 4
================================================================================

Forward Returns Summary:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Window     Count    Median     Mean       Min        Max        % Positive  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  7 days        4      -1.28%      -1.08%      -2.88%       1.11%       25.0%
 14 days        4       4.84%       9.13%      -0.02%      26.86%       75.0%
 30 days        4      16.63%      23.87%       8.94%      53.26%      100.0%
 90 days        4     303.08%     301.10%      15.56%     582.66%      100.0%
180 days        4     347.04%     275.08%       1.59%     404.66%      100.0%
365 days        4     261.05%     301.64%     -54.51%     738.96%       75.0%

Top 5 Similar Periods (with 90-day forward returns):
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Start Date   End Date     Forward Return  Cycle Year   Quarter 
2021-09-21   2021-12-20    15.56%       Year1        3       
2017-03-22   2017-06-20   164.08%       Year1        1       
2013-09-17   2013-12-16   442.08%       Year1        3       
2013-09-16   2013-12-15   582.66%       Year1        3       
================================================================================
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===== Bitcoin 50% Recovery Points from 30%+ Drawdowns in 2024-2025 =====
Total recovery points found: 2

----- Average Statistics -----
Average Drawdown: 32.4%

Average Forward Returns:
7 days: -2.9% (Win rate: 50.0%)
14 days: 0.7% (Win rate: 50.0%)
30 days: 3.6% (Win rate: 50.0%)
60 days: 0.8% (Win rate: 100.0%)
90 days: 22.6% (Win rate: 100.0%)
180 days: 58.5% (Win rate: 100.0%)
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===== Bitcoin 50% Recovery Points from 30%+ Drawdowns Cycle Year(s): Year1 =====
Total recovery points found: 14

Showing 3 out of 14 recovery points (sorted by drawdown size)

Recovery Point #1 (sorted by drawdown size):
Date: 2013-10-18 00:00:00
Year: 2013 | Cycle_year: Year1 | Quarter: 4 | Month: October
Price at recovery: $152.89
Previous peak (high): $259.34
Drawdown low: $45.00
Drawdown amount: $214.34 (82.6%)
Recovery amount: $107.89 (50.3%)

Forward Returns:
7d: 22.0% | 14d: 32.2% | 30d: 212.2% | 60d: 341.5% | 90d: 444.1% | 180d: 660.2%

Recovery Point #2 (sorted by drawdown size):
Date: 2017-01-01 00:00:00
Year: 2017 | Cycle_year: Year1 | Quarter: 1 | Month: January
Price at recovery: $997.75
Previous peak (high): $1163.00
Drawdown low: $382.21
Drawdown amount: $780.79 (67.1%)
Recovery amount: $615.54 (78.8%)

Forward Returns:
7d: -8.8% | 14d: -17.6% | 30d: -3.4% | 60d: 26.0% | 90d: 8.6% | 180d: 147.1%

Recovery Point #3 (sorted by drawdown size):
Date: 2021-08-13 00:00:00
Year: 2021 | Cycle_year: Year1 | Quarter: 3 | Month: August
Price at recovery: $47860.58
Previous peak (high): $64895.22
Drawdown low: $28600.00
Drawdown amount: $36295.22 (55.9%)
Recovery amount: $19260.58 (53.1%)

Forward Returns:
7d: 3.1% | 14d: 2.6% | 30d: -3.8% | 60d: 17.0% | 90d: 35.4% | 180d: 101.6%

----- Average Statistics -----
Average Drawdown: 43.6%

Average Forward Returns:
7 days: 13.0% (Win rate: 64.3%)
14 days: 25.3% (Win rate: 71.4%)
30 days: 57.4% (Win rate: 71.4%)
60 days: 91.7% (Win rate: 92.3%)
90 days: 135.9% (Win rate: 100.0%)
180 days: 364.6% (Win rate: 100.0%)
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🎯 COMPLETE ANALYSIS FOR Year1
============================================================
🔄 Calculating days since 20-day highs/lows...

📊 CURRENT STATUS (20-DAY WINDOW):
Days since 20-day high: 7
Days since 20-day low: 17
20-day high: $111970.17
20-day low: $100764.00
Current close: $105641.76
Current cycle year: Year1
Current month: May
Current quarter: Q2
------------------------------------------------------------

🧪 HISTORICAL TESTING - 20-DAY WINDOW:
============================================================

🔴 Testing: Days since 20-day HIGH = 7
🔍 APPLYING FILTERS:
==================================================
📅 Cycle Year: Year1

📈 Records: 5,001 → 1,244 (24.9%)
==================================================
=== Historical Analysis: days_since_20d_high = 7 (Filtered: Year: Year1) ===
Total occurrences: 40
Date range: 2013-03-13 00:00:00 to 2025-05-29 00:00:00
Cycle Year breakdown: {'Year1': np.int64(40)}
Quarter breakdown: {1: np.int64(12), 2: np.int64(12), 3: np.int64(8), 4: np.int64(8)}
Month breakdown: {'January': np.int64(5), 'March': np.int64(4), 'May': np.int64(4), 'April': np.int64(4), 'June': np.int64(4), 'October': np.int64(4), 'September': np.int64(3), 'August': np.int64(3), 'February': np.int64(3), 'July': np.int64(2), 'December': np.int64(2), 'November': np.int64(2)}

--- 1-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 1.44%
Median return: 0.87%
Win rate: 59.0%
Best return: 21.47%
Worst return: -9.49%
Standard deviation: 5.64%
68% of returns fall between: -4.20% to 7.08%

--- 5-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 4.85%
Median return: 4.20%
Win rate: 74.4%
Best return: 37.52%
Worst return: -25.09%
Standard deviation: 11.31%
68% of returns fall between: -6.46% to 16.17%

--- 10-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 7.74%
Median return: 7.05%
Win rate: 64.1%
Best return: 58.69%
Worst return: -16.34%
Standard deviation: 15.72%
68% of returns fall between: -7.98% to 23.47%

--- 20-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 19.07%
Median return: 5.50%
Win rate: 74.4%
Best return: 194.29%
Worst return: -17.86%
Standard deviation: 40.97%
68% of returns fall between: -21.91% to 60.04%


🟢 Testing: Days since 20-day LOW = 17
🔍 APPLYING FILTERS:
==================================================
📅 Cycle Year: Year1

📈 Records: 5,001 → 1,244 (24.9%)
==================================================
=== Historical Analysis: days_since_20d_low = 17 (Filtered: Year: Year1) ===
Total occurrences: 86
Date range: 2013-01-04 00:00:00 to 2025-05-29 00:00:00
Cycle Year breakdown: {'Year1': np.int64(86)}
Quarter breakdown: {1: np.int64(24), 2: np.int64(24), 3: np.int64(19), 4: np.int64(19)}
Month breakdown: {'May': np.int64(11), 'August': np.int64(10), 'March': np.int64(9), 'October': np.int64(9), 'January': np.int64(8), 'April': np.int64(8), 'February': np.int64(7), 'November': np.int64(6), 'September': np.int64(5), 'June': np.int64(5), 'July': np.int64(4), 'December': np.int64(4)}

--- 1-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 0.41%
Median return: 0.53%
Win rate: 58.8%
Best return: 15.33%
Worst return: -29.26%
Standard deviation: 5.23%
68% of returns fall between: -4.82% to 5.64%

--- 5-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 3.81%
Median return: 2.96%
Win rate: 67.1%
Best return: 48.64%
Worst return: -60.21%
Standard deviation: 14.09%
68% of returns fall between: -10.29% to 17.90%

--- 10-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 7.77%
Median return: 4.28%
Win rate: 59.5%
Best return: 106.22%
Worst return: -48.60%
Standard deviation: 23.40%
68% of returns fall between: -15.63% to 31.18%

--- 20-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 16.62%
Median return: 10.13%
Win rate: 63.9%
Best return: 246.69%
Worst return: -37.42%
Standard deviation: 41.06%
68% of returns fall between: -24.44% to 57.67%


📊 SUMMARY COMPARISON TABLE (20-DAY WINDOW - Year: Year1):
================================================================================
Signal Type              Occurrences  1D Avg  5D Avg  10D Avg  20D Avg  1D Win%  5D Win%  10D Win%  20D Win%  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Days Since 20D High = 7  40           1.4%    4.9%    7.7%     19.1%    59%      74%      64%       74%       
Days Since 20D Low = 17  86           0.4%    3.8%    7.8%     16.6%    59%      67%      60%       64%       
================================================================================

⚡ QUICK INSIGHTS (20-DAY WINDOW - Year: Year1):
📈 20D High Signal (7d): 20-day avg 19.1% | Best: 194% | Worst: -18%
   └─ 68% of returns fall between: -21.9% to +60.0% (±1 std dev)
📉 20D Low Signal (17d): 20-day avg 16.6% | Best: 247% | Worst: -37%
   └─ 68% of returns fall between: -24.4% to +57.7% (±1 std dev)
================================================================================

📈 Creating original visualizations...
🔍 APPLYING FILTERS:
==================================================
📅 Cycle Year: Year1

📈 Records: 5,001 → 1,244 (24.9%)
==================================================
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📈 CREATING INDIVIDUAL YEAR CHARTS FOR Year1:
============================================================

🔴 High Signal Charts (20D High = 7 days):
📅 Creating individual charts for Year1: [np.int32(2013), np.int32(2017), np.int32(2021), np.int32(2025)]
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🟢 Low Signal Charts (20D Low = 17 days):
📅 Creating individual charts for Year1: [np.int32(2013), np.int32(2017), np.int32(2021), np.int32(2025)]
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Bitcoin performance after first all time high in 30 days (Year1)
================================================================
      Date Bitcoin Close High Price Cycle Year   Week  Month 3 Month 6 Month    Year
01/21/2013         16.52      16.98      Year1  13.01  81.60  619.19  414.77 4893.28
02/20/2013         30.00      30.07      Year1   4.37 133.00  291.67  242.83 1772.87
03/25/2013         75.11      80.00      Year1  39.40  98.38   33.68   64.28  677.22
11/06/2013        263.24     265.00      Year1  49.48 207.71  205.04   64.49   32.95
02/23/2017      1,188.11   1,193.92      Year1   5.80 -19.53  103.71  243.82  755.65
04/30/2017      1,350.21   1,356.00      Year1  15.09  63.20   98.53  327.48  584.50
06/06/2017      2,880.74   2,933.00      Year1  -6.17  -9.73   48.47  290.52  165.85
08/05/2017      3,263.62   3,339.66      Year1  18.12  31.05  118.98  175.74  115.48
10/12/2017      5,445.00   5,445.00      Year1   4.66  16.71  173.46   25.54   13.59
11/16/2017      7,846.96   7,976.79      Year1   1.81 144.53   20.95    8.00  -29.80
12/16/2017     19,187.78  19,377.00      Year1 -23.81 -29.08  -56.96  -65.36  -83.36
01/01/2021     29,402.64  29,700.00      Year1  38.31  12.72   99.74   19.16   62.49
02/08/2021     46,416.45  46,712.12      Year1   3.29  20.33   25.61   -3.89   -5.01
03/13/2021     61,165.19  61,781.83      Year1  -4.95  -2.18  -38.95  -24.15  -38.22
04/13/2021     63,564.48  63,769.00      Year1 -11.11 -21.82  -47.92  -13.92  -35.27
10/20/2021     65,990.31  67,016.50      Year1 -11.40 -11.91  -35.78  -38.15  -71.14
01/20/2025    102,141.00 109,356.00      Year1  -0.05  -5.38  -16.59    5.99    5.99
05/21/2025    109,682.00 110,730.00      Year1  -1.30  -1.30   -1.30   -1.30   -1.30
   Average                                       7.47  39.35   91.20   96.44  489.77
    Median                                       3.83  14.71   41.08   22.35   23.27
% Positive                                       61.1   55.6    66.7    66.7    61.1
Found 155 total ATHs to analyze

Analyzing 14-day pause ATHs...
Found 14 ATHs with 14-day pause
Bitcoin Forward Returns FROM Pause End - 14 day pauses (Year1)
==============================================================
  ATH Date        ATH Days   End Date  End Price Decline Cycle     1W  1W DD 1W Max     2W  2W DD 2W Max     1M  1M DD 1M Max     2M  2M DD 2M Max     3M  3M DD 3M Max     6M  6M DD 6M Max     1Y  1Y DD  1Y Max
04/10/2013     162.00   14 04/24/2013     149.00   -8.02 Year1 -21.64 -29.60  14.28 -24.05 -45.30  14.28 -13.62 -45.30  14.28 -32.61 -45.30  14.28 -41.62 -57.72  14.28  20.89 -57.72  22.10 237.05 -57.72  680.54
11/30/2013   1,119.80   14 12/14/2013     854.99  -23.65 Year1 -30.18 -55.30   1.75 -16.37 -55.30   1.75  -3.74 -55.30  16.38 -23.66 -55.30  16.38 -26.27 -55.30  16.38 -33.44 -60.26  16.38 -58.30 -67.84   16.38
03/10/2017   1,116.97   14 03/24/2017     929.06  -16.82 Year1  15.20  -4.06  16.35  28.16  -4.06  29.38  33.68  -4.06  34.79 143.71  -4.06 144.87 192.07  -4.06 220.75 317.03  -4.06 436.01 819.96  -4.06 2016.76
06/12/2017   2,667.06   14 06/26/2017   2,421.22   -9.22 Year1   5.34  -5.38   7.18  -4.04  -6.58   9.01   4.29 -24.42  21.34  79.91 -24.42  85.03  51.34 -24.42 105.68 503.79 -24.42 712.24 150.62 -24.42  712.24
09/02/2017   4,599.90   14 09/16/2017   3,678.93  -20.02 Year1   2.72  -5.87  12.06  17.59  -5.87  18.21  56.18  -5.87  58.92  98.26  -5.87 114.41 374.91  -5.87 387.48 124.66  -5.87 434.56  76.68  -5.87  434.56
12/17/2017  18,953.00   14 12/31/2017  13,880.00  -26.77 Year1  16.17  -7.77  24.17  -1.67  -7.78  24.17 -28.16 -33.56  24.17 -21.45 -57.34  24.17 -50.08 -57.34  24.17 -55.30 -58.40  24.17 -73.39 -77.51   24.17
01/08/2021  40,667.07   14 01/22/2021  32,992.06  -18.87 Year1   3.81 -11.64  17.06  16.15 -11.64  17.45  74.26 -11.64  76.87  64.77 -11.64  87.26  56.66 -11.64  96.70  -2.59 -13.31  96.70   6.36 -13.31  109.14
02/21/2021  57,492.91   14 03/07/2021  50,967.30  -11.35 Year1  15.79  -3.24  21.22  12.59  -3.24  21.22  13.83  -3.24  21.22  10.75  -7.78  27.33 -30.28 -41.01  27.33  -1.85 -43.89  27.33 -25.41 -43.89   35.38
03/13/2021  61,165.19   14 03/27/2021  55,839.42   -8.71 Year1   2.19  -2.08   7.64   7.03  -2.08   9.64  -3.16 -15.82  16.22 -29.60 -46.16  16.22 -43.41 -48.78  16.22 -19.58 -48.78  16.22 -16.07 -48.78   23.57
04/14/2021  62,986.09   14 04/28/2021  54,901.97  -12.83 Year1   4.75  -4.59   7.46 -10.05 -11.61   8.56 -34.99 -45.24   8.56 -36.80 -47.91   8.56 -28.10 -47.91   8.56  14.93 -47.91  22.07 -27.59 -47.91   25.68
10/20/2021  65,990.31   14 11/03/2021  62,930.72   -4.64 Year1   3.16  -4.48   9.64  -4.06  -7.20   9.64 -14.60 -18.07   9.64 -24.76 -33.31   9.64 -38.45 -47.64   9.64 -38.79 -47.64   9.64 -67.89 -72.04    9.64
11/10/2021  64,921.43   14 11/24/2021  57,185.06  -11.92 Year1   0.12  -6.78   3.95 -11.61 -26.61   3.95 -11.09 -26.61   3.95 -36.53 -40.54   3.95 -33.08 -42.38   3.95 -49.14 -55.58   3.95 -70.99 -72.93    3.95
01/20/2025 102,141.00   14 02/03/2025 101,457.00   -0.67 Year1  -3.93  -6.63   0.32  -5.60  -7.26   0.32 -10.69 -22.93   0.32 -17.35 -24.50   0.32  -7.04 -26.63   0.32   6.70 -26.63  10.39   6.70 -26.63   10.39
   Average                                        -13.35         1.04 -11.34  11.01   0.31 -14.96  12.89   4.78 -24.00  23.59  13.43 -31.09  42.49  28.97 -36.21  71.65  60.56 -38.04 140.90  73.67 -43.30  315.57
    Median                                        -11.92         3.16  -5.87   9.64  -4.04  -7.26   9.64  -3.74 -22.93  16.38 -21.45 -33.31  16.38 -28.10 -42.38  16.38  -1.85 -47.64  22.10 -16.07 -47.91   25.68
% Positive                                                       76.9    0.0  100.0   38.5    0.0  100.0   38.5    0.0  100.0   38.5    0.0  100.0   30.8    0.0  100.0   46.2    0.0  100.0   46.2    0.0   100.0

Breakdown by Pause Period:
  14-day pause: 13 ATHs
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Deployment complete!